By John C. K. Daly


As Turkey moves to upgrade its weapons systems, Ankara is considering
all options and possible suppliers, including Moscow. The value of
such runs into billions of dollars, generating intense competition,
particularly over contracts to supply Turkey with an advanced
surface-to-air missile system, with potential capabilities against
ballistic missiles. While Turkey's relations with Syria and Iran are
generally good, many Turkish government and military officials share
the West's long-term concerns about Iran's growing interest and
capabilities in missiles and weapons of mass destruction (see EDM, May 7).

Turkey's civilian agency for military procurement, the
Undersecretariat for the Defense Industry (SSM), is advising the
Defense Ministry and has the final say on the tenders. Russia's S-400
"Triumph," NATO-codenamed SA-21 "Growler," is competing against the
American companies Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, which offer a
combination of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC 3) and PAC 2 ABMs.
Another American entrant, Boeing, is offering its Arrow missile
system, developed jointly with Israel's Aerospace Industries (IAI).
The Chinese HQ-9 air defense system is also in the contest.

According to sources within Turkish defense industry, Russia's arms
export agency Rosoboronexport has attempted to sidestep the SSM's
Request for Proposal (RfP) procedure. Rosoboronexport, which has been
lobbying for the contract since March 2007, switched its offer last
month into direct state-to-state negotiations, trying to sell a dozen
S-400 missile systems worth $4 billion (Zaman, July 21). The SSM
earlier rebuffed the Kremlin's offer of direct sales, advising
Rosoboronexport instead to submit a RfP.

An issue yet to be resolved is Turkey's interest in winning bids
incorporating both technology transfer and indigenous manufacturing of
system components in Turkey. That issue has in the past has bedeviled
U.S. attempts to sell advanced fighter aircraft to Turkey because of
disputes over their accompanying aviation software packages.
Reflecting U.S. concern over Ankara's consideration of the Russian
bid, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates during a visit to Ankara
cautioned that such a purchase would interfere with NATO
interoperability standards. Gates pointed out that Ankara could and
should discuss the purchase with its Allies (Millet Haber, May 7).

According to Russia's Air Defense Forces Commander, Colonel-General
Yury Solovyov, the S-400 boasts a launch speed of up to 3 miles per
second and can intercept and destroy airborne targets at a range of up
to 250 miles, which is twice the defensive range of the MIM-104
Patriot and 2.5 times that of its predecessor, the S-300PMU-2. Further
according to Solovyov, the S-400 could also be used for limited
purposes in space defense, but was not designed for intercepting and
destroying intercontinental ballistic missiles (RIA-Novosti, June 12).

It is a measure of Moscow's eagerness to conclude the sale that
Russia's own armed forces have yet themselves to be equipped with this
system. According to Russia's Air Force Commander, Colonel-General
Aleksandr Zelin, the first battalion of S-400 missiles defending
Moscow and Central Russia was scheduled to become operational on July
1, 2007, but the date was postponed (RIA Novosti, May 21, July 7). And
according to the Air Force's air defense chief, Lieutenant-General
Aleksandr Gorkov, Russia plans to deploy new air defense systems,
primarily around Russia's important administrative and political
centers, in two stages until 2015 (RIA Novosti, July 13).

Despite the system's teething problems, then-President Vladimir Putin
was sufficiently impressed with the Almaz Central Design Bureau's
S-400 that on April 30 he issued a presidential decree awarding state
orders and medals to designers of the Antaeus S-400 system
(www.almaz-antey.ru).

Following a July 22 meeting of the Turkish Defense Industry Executive
Board chaired by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Defense Minister
Vecdi Gonul told journalists that the board had approved opening
negotiations with the Anglo-German joint venture
Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft and Marine Force International (HDW-MFI)
about building six diesel electric U-214 design submarines in a
contract potentially worth $4 billion (Haber, July 22). Under the
terms of the proposed contract, the boats are to be constructed at
Turkey's Golcuk Naval Shipyard, with the first submarine to be
delivered in 2015. Besides Erdogan and Gonul, the other Executive
Board members are the General Staff Chief, Army Gen. Yasar Buyukanit,
and chief procurement official Murad Bayar.

Among the other bidders on the Turkish tender were France's DCNS
(Armaris) and Spain's Navantia S.A. (Sabah, July 23). Lockheed Martin,
competing for the missile PfP, was also involved as systems integrator
with the Navantia offer.

Howaldtswerke, based in Lubeck, has over the last five decades built
more than 100 submarines for fifteen different nations, including
Israel's Dolphin-class boats. No U.S. companies competed directly for
the Turkish submarine tender, as the U.S. shut down its diesel
submarine production lines in the 1950s after the U.S. Navy submarine
program switched to nuclear propulsion.

In line with Turkey's interest in indigenous production, Gonul said
that Turkish industrial participation would be worth around 80 percent
of the total value of the project, with Turkish industrial
subcontractors providing about 20 of the submarines' systems and
sub-systems (Hurriyet, July 23).

The Turkish Navy's U-214 submarine, operated by a 40-man crew, will
have a 50-day patrol capability and a 12,000-mile operational range.
Under the terms of the tender, 15 percent of the project's cost will
be paid in advance, with the remainder covered by a loan (Sabah, July 23).

As Turkey upgrades its military capabilities, Ankara is insisting that
technology transfer be an integral part of successful bids. While
Washington has thus far been hesitant to agree to such terms,
preferring to provide "complete" weapons packages, Moscow is more
flexible on the issue. This indicates that the Pentagon's previous
hammerlock on its allies' weapons purchases may be a thing of the
past, and Ankara finds itself in the luxurious position of choosing
between multiple offers, a pattern that arms manufacturers are likely
to encounter increasingly in the future